Iran: Hangs in a delicate balance

MENA Outlook Quarterly
Iran Q4 2021 MO

A new administration now firmly holds the reins in Iran. The transfer of power marks the end of a moderate chapter in Iranian politics. As such, the future of a nuclear deal is in the balance; a date for a return to Vienna has yet to be confirmed. Even when (or if) negotiations recommence, they may drag well into 2022. This quarter, we will deep-dive into the Islamic Republic. We will analyse the country's potential, as well as its shortcomings which could hinder its economic growth as well as its potential as the country embarks on a new chapter under a hardline government. This quarter: 

  • We analyse scenarios in which negotiations pan out successfully. Sanctions have weighed heavily on Iran’s prospects, yet the country has emerged as one of the few MENA players to post positive growth in 2020. 
  • We discuss several of Iran’s key sectors, as well as those which possess untapped potential. 
  • We explore the crucial factors regarding Iran’s business operating environment, covering both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and ‘bonyads’ (charitable funds).
  • Following our views on Iran, we discuss recovery prospects elsewhere. While we are optimistic in terms of a regional comeback (which is already underway), the market is still susceptible to shocks. 


Florence Eid-Oakden, Ph.D, Chief Economist

Leila Lajevardi, Mingqiao Zhao, Abdelgadir Shukri, Olivia Phillipon, Analysts

The MENA Outlook publication presents Arabia Monitor’s insights on global markets, outlines and analyses regional future trends and defining themes, and then focuses on individual country macroeconomic views.

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