Iran: Down, but not out
- There is little doubt that new US-led sanctions are taking a toll on Iran: the economy is now forecast by the IMF to contract by 9.5% this year, surpassing what was already a dire projection of a 6% fall in GDP.
- It is not all gloom, however. The “parallel” market is picking up some of the slack, as non-oil driven sectors such as manufacturing, petrochemicals, food and textiles as well as trade with China, Turkey, Syria and Iraq remain stable.
- Protests in neighbouring Iraq have challenged Iran’s influence in that country. Initially, demonstrations were over local grievances, but this has morphed into a protest against Iranian intervention.
Florence Eid-Oakden, Ph.D, Chief Economist
Charlene Rahall, Senior Analyst
Leila Lajevardi, Analyst
The Country Views series shines the spotlight on specific developments in MENA countries, analysing them from a local perspective to deliver forward looking views for businesses and investors.
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