Coronavirus + Collapsed Oil

• In addition to varying domestic impacts, COVID-19 could initially weigh on the MENA region through lower average Chinese energy demand, as well as interrupted Chinese tourism, and disruptions to Chinese supply chains impacting trade flows.
• The oil price crash, a sharp fall in global growth, and COVID-19 will put severe strains on both oil and non-oil revenue sources in MENA (including VAT, real estate fees, tourism and trade).
• The region should brace for these blows, which could well lead to its economy contracting this year.

Florence Eid-Oakden, Ph.D, Chief Economist

Charlene Rahall, Senior Analyst

Leila Lajevardi & Nancy Bou Dakka, Analysts

The Regional Views series are thematic papers aimed at identifying and analysing factors behind medium to long-term economic trends shaping the region. Our analysis draws conclusions that help businesses and investors get ahead of the curve. As a firm staffed by Middle Easterners, we focus on insight rather than standard analysis.

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