Coronavirus + Collapsed Oil
Regional Views
- In addition to varying domestic impacts, COVID-19 could initially weigh on the MENA region through lower average Chinese energy demand, as well as interrupted Chinese tourism, and disruptions to Chinese supply chains impacting trade flows.
- The oil price crash, a sharp fall in global growth, and COVID-19 will put severe strains on both oil and non-oil revenue sources in MENA (including VAT, real estate fees, tourism and trade).
- The region should brace for these blows, which could well lead to its economy contracting this year.
Florence Eid-Oakden, Ph.D, Chief Economist
Charlene Rahall, Senior Analyst
Leila Lajevardi & Nancy Bou Dakka, Analysts
The Regional Views series are thematic papers aimed at identifying and analysing factors behind medium to long-term economic trends shaping the region. Our analysis draws conclusions that help businesses and investors get ahead of the curve. As a firm staffed by Middle Easterners, we focus on insight rather than standard analysis.
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