We believe that de-escalation will continue following statements from both the Iranian and US leadership. Although both parties tentatively appear to be standing down, this could break down easily and retaliatory acts could resume.
Higher oil output should boost growth, but structural vulnerabilities, particularly high unemployment and a growing population, are being left unattended by the absence of any major legislative action.
LIBYA: ECONOMICALLY DAMAGING STALEMATE AT BEST, SUSTAINED VIOLENCE AT WORST
The IMF expects 2019 real GDP at 4.3% based on oil production at around 1 Mb/d. But such growth will be difficult to attain in a country in conflict and with the oil sector subject to constant supply disruptions.