Coronavirus + Collapsed Oil

Coronavirus + Collapsed Oil

The oil price crash, a sharp fall in global growth, and COVID-19 will put severe strains on both oil and non-oil revenue sources in MENA (including VAT, real estate fees, tourism and trade).
Iran: "Resistance Economy: Redefined

Iran: "Resistance Economy" Redefined

Our regional theme this quarter analyses how Iran has been impacted by the re-imposition of sanctions, lower oil prices and coronavirus (COVID-19). We look at how the country’s relationships will change in the region and internationally.
Iraq: Deadlock and demos

Iraq: Deadlock and demos

• Finding a new Iraqi government is at an impasse and will be for the foreseeable future following the former prime minister-designate's resignation on 1 March, hours after he failed to get his Cabinet approved by the parliament.
Dr. Florence Eid-Oakden on Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East

Dr Florence Eid-Oakden on oil prices & Saudi Arabia's move

Dr Florence Eid-Oakden, Arabia Monitor's Chief Economist, discussed the repercussions of Lebanon's bond default as well as the Saudi-Russian oil price war on Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East.
UAE: Big plans, big threat

UAE: Big plans, big threat

• The UAE is expecting an economic fillip from Dubai Expo 2020 as well as from growth-friendly reforms it has passed and government acceleration programmes it has launched, especially in Abu Dhabi.
March Monthly Outlook: High stakes across MENA

High stakes across MENA

A political stalemate has been averted in Tunisia with the approval of Prime Minister Elyses Fakhfakh’s Cabinet. The country can now turn to urgent reforms.
Algeria: Status quo ante

Algeria: Status quo ante

The continuing unrest poses a risk to overall economic activity and foreign investment. We are doubtful that the revamped hydrocarbons law will bear fruit anytime soon.
Iran: Hard-line victory by default

Iran: Hard-line victory by default

• Iran’s parliamentary elections on 21 February are set to be a shoo-in victory for conservative MPs, giving them a large majority of seats.
•	Lebanon has formed a new government primarily composed of appointees endorsed by Hezbollah-aligned parties and oligarchs.

Political Transition: A new normal

Lebanon has formed a new government primarily composed of appointees endorsed by Hezbollah-aligned parties and oligarchs.
Saudi Arabia Monitor

SAUDI ARABIA: BALANCED BUDGET WITHIN REACH

Strengthening the private sector and creating more jobs will remain key focus areas for the government in the next financial year.
Iran & Iraq: A deadly new crisis with the US

Iran & Iraq: A deadly new crisis with the US

We believe that de-escalation will continue following statements from both the Iranian and US leadership. Although both parties tentatively appear to be standing down, this could break down easily and retaliatory acts could resume.
EGYPT: AWAITING TRICKLE-DOWN

EGYPT: AWAITING TRICKLE-DOWN

Egypt’s economic growth outlook remains favourable, but sustained reform implementation will be critical if the benefits are to trickle down to the average citizen.
MENA-India: Strategically driven, historically bound

MENA-India: Strategically driven, historically bound

Our regional theme this quarter analyses growing relations between the GCC and India with a focus on energy and merchandise trade, FDI and remittances. We also highlight opportunities for scaling up.
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